Citigroup has unveiled its forecasts for the development of stablecoins between now and 2030, in its latest “Digital Dollar” report (link at the bottom of this article). Current growth could accelerate further, driven by a clearer regulatory framework in the United States, strong demand for dollars in emerging countries, “cash” circulating at Internet speed and the rise of decentralized finance.
Here are the report’s key points.
Up to $3,700 billion in capitalization by 2030
Currently, the total capitalization of stablecoins stands at $240 billion. By 2030, it could reach :
- 3700 bn (optimistic scenario)
- 1600 billion $ (average)
- 500 billion (pessimistic scenario, i.e. a doubling compared with 2025)
The report points out that stablecoin capitalization has already increased 30-fold over the past five years.
The ChatGPT moment for blockchains
2025 could well be the year blockchain technology experiences its “ChatGPT moment” in adoption by banks and the public sector.
The dominance of the US dollar is set to continue
USD stablecoins could account for 90% of the total in circulation, with the remainder dominated by central bank digital currencies, such as the ECB’s digital euro.
Future largest holders of US debt
A clear regulatory framework for stablecoins in the US could accelerate demand for US Treasuries. Stablecoin issuers would be among the largest holders of US debt on the planet, holding over $1,000 billion in US Treasuries.
Opportunities and challenges for banks
Stablecoins present both opportunities and risks for banks. On the one hand, they offer the possibility of developing new financial services and improving transaction efficiency. On the other, they could lead to a substitution of traditional deposits, posing challenges for existing banking business models.
The adoption of blockchain in the public sector
The report highlights the potential of blockchain to transform public sector operations. By replacing centralized, often paper-based processes with decentralized, secure systems, blockchain can improve transparency, reduce fraud and increase efficiency.
Main uses in the public sector
The main use cases for blockchain in the public sector are: expenditure tracking, grant disbursement, public records management, humanitarian aid campaigns, asset tokenization and digital identity.
In detail, here’s how the market cap reaches $3700 bn in 2030 in the optimistic scenario:
✅ Reallocation of cash or dollar equivalents to stablecoins
- 372 bn: USD banknotes outside the USA
- 182 billion: USD banknotes in the USA
- 908 bn: US savings & current accounts
- 221 bn: term deposits & US money-market funds (if stablecoins at yield)
✅ Global reallocation of liquidity to stablecoins outside US & China
- 218 bn: substitution for M0 money supply
- 545 bn: savings & current accounts
- 544 bn: term deposits & MMFs (if interest-bearing stablecoins)
✅ Crypto-native growth
- 718 bn: natural extension of the current stablecoin offering, linked to institutional crypto adoption and decentralized finance use cases (DeFi)
Conclusion
According to projections, stablecoins could well become a new form of cash – much easier to transport and transfer.
Backed by fiat currencies, these digital tokens have the potential to drive down the costs associated with sending and using money in many parts of the world, including the USA, where the payments market remains particularly fragmented.
→ They also offer direct access – without intermediaries – to several yield products, such as money market funds. And thanks in particular to the composability of decentralized finance (DeFi), the rates on offer can exceed those of the traditional financial system.
The full Citigroup report is available at on this link.
